Belanja Pemerintah Dorong Pertumbuhan Investasi 2016

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan akan membaik, yaitu di sekitar 5,2 persen untuk tahun 2016 ini. Gundy Cahyadi, DBS Group Research, menyatakan, pertumbuhan konsumsi stabil di sekitaran 5 persen. Ia melihat pertumbuhan investasi akan membaik didorong oleh pembelanjaan pemerintah, terutama di bidang infrastruktur.



Pertumbuhan konsumsi juga relatif stabil apalagi sektor ini menjadi pilar utama pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh perbaikan kepercayaan konsumen terlihat dari kenaikan impor barang konsumsi. Selain itu oleh kenaikan Penghasilan Tidak Kena Pajak dari Rp 3 juta per bulan menjadi Rp 4,5 juta.





DBS Asian Insights Media Luncheon

DBS Asian Insights Media Luncheon







Ia memproyeksikan konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh stabil di kisaran lima persen. Sedangkan dari sisi ekspor belum bisa diharapkan. “Sebelas paket kebijakan ekonomi seharusnya bisa memberi impak positif jangka menengah. Terutama terkait ease of doing business,” ujarnya.



Pertumbuhan ini 75 persen berasal dari dalam negeri, yaitu investasi dan konsumsi domestik. Berbeda dengan Singapura atau Hongkong yang memang lebih export oriented. Ia memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada jangka panjang bisa mencapai enam persen dalam lima tahun ke depan jika pemerintah tidak lagi bergantung pada komoditas.



Menurutnya,yang dilakukan pemerintah sudah tepat dengan menargetkan sektor manufaktur dan industri jadi driver of growth. Sedangkan untuk kuartal I 2016, angka pertumbuhan masih berkisar 5,1 persen atau tidak begitu jauh dari kuartal IV 2016.



Selain itu, ia pun memberi pernyataan lain walau bagaimana pun, ada beberapa risiko untuk prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi ke depan.Salah satunya, pertumbuhan investasi swasta yang masih berada di bawah potential. Ini membuat pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat tergantung dengan pembelanjaan APBN negara. Laju pembelanjaan APBN sangat penting, apalagi mengingat laju di tahun lalu yang mengecewakan.



“Sektor industri / manufacturing juga terlihat masih lemah. Salah satu indikasinya adalah impor barang-barang modal yang sampai bulan Maret ini masih belum menunjukan adanya bottoming-out. Kebijakan-kebijakan Pemerintah yang mendorong pendalaman pasar keuangan perlu dikedepankan Bank Indonesia telah merubah suku bunga acuannya. Mulai 19 Agustus nanti, BI akan menggunakan 7-day reverse repo rate sebagai suku bunga acuan untuk kebijakan moneternya. Kebijakan ini ditetapkan untuk mendorong financial market deepening, bukan sebagai langkah policy easing,” ungkapnya. (EVA)



Sumber: http://swa.co.id/business-research/belanja-pemerintah-dorong-pertumbuhan-investasi-2016

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